Article Link! The Great American EV Fire Sale Is About to Begin

Racer88 said:
Their ICE cars suck, too, eh?



My shocked face.
Star Trek Thinking GIF by HULU
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It's been a very long time since I drove a Chevy or any GM car. I have friends and neighbors with Silverado pickups and Tahoes and they like them. I see a lot of Suburbans too. I frequently rented Tahoes and Suburbans. Seemed OK to me.

The best truck I ever had was a Tundra.
 
Racer88 said:
www.caranddriver.com

Things Don't Look Good for EVs: Sales Plummet In October Following Elimination of Federal Tax Credit

Some of the bestselling EVs saw significant declines, including the Hyundai Ioniq 5, Kia EV6, and Honda Prologue.
www.caranddriver.com www.caranddriver.com
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EV buyers in August and September were off the chart to get in ahead of the end of the tax credit. Record sales. So they report low sales when it drops in October, which is nothing more than a return to the regular demand for EVs. Which in spite of the haters who make shit up, is growing.

The C&D article headline is a half truth. Typical sensationalism to get clicks. The magazine has been taken over by pansy-ass writers that have never changed a tire. C&D is now owned by San Francisco-based media giant Hearst Communications. I used to read Jalopnik too. It's become the MSNBC of car blogs. They went political a long time ago. It's not about cars anymore. Jalopnik – Bias and Credibility

Global EV sales reached 12.5 million units in the first eight months of the year. This is fact, not opinion. So the "nobody is buying EVs" is a bunch of interwebs bullshit. Momentum remains in Europe, driven largely by new emissions legislation. Germany and the UK grew by 45 percent and 31 percent, respectively. Anybody who thinks EV sales are not on a growth trajectory lives in a bubble filled with gasoline fumes.

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Bottom line: Everybody in the US who wanted an EV was motivated to buy before the tax credit went away. So of course sales are going to drop after that surge. Tesla was hitting record sales numbers for the reasons stated here. Then it tapers off in October and the haters declare it a disastrous plunge to the bottom. Reactive Reddit Retards. Like those who think that they have the stock market all figured out. I'm long on Tesla. Which was up 23% yesterday. I bought back in after a long hiatus in April and May and I'm up 90%. Almost doubled my money in six months.
 
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Bongo Lewi said:
EV buyers in August and September were off the chart to get in ahead of the end of the tax credit. Record sales. So they report low sales when it drops in October, which is nothing more than a return to the regular demand for EVs. Which in spite of the haters who make shit up, is growing.

The C&D article headline is a half truth. Typical sensationalism to get clicks. The magazine has been taken over by pansy-ass writers that have never changed a tire. C&D is now owned by San Francisco-based media giant Hearst Communications. I used to read Jalopnik too. It's become the MSNBC of car blogs. They went political a long time ago. It's not about cars anymore. Jalopnik – Bias and Credibility

Global EV sales reached 12.5 million units in the first eight months of the year. This is fact, not opinion. So the "nobody is buying EVs" is a bunch of interwebs bullshit. Momentum remains in Europe, driven largely by new emissions legislation. Germany and the UK grew by 45 percent and 31 percent, respectively. Anybody who thinks EV sales are not on a growth trajectory lives in a bubble filled with gasoline fumes.

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Bottom line: Everybody in the US who wanted an EV was motivated to buy before the tax credit went away. So of course sales are going to drop after that surge. Tesla was hitting record sales numbers for the reasons stated here. Then it tapers off in October and the haters declare it a disastrous plunge to the bottom. Reactive Reddit Retards. Like those who think that they have the stock market all figured out. I'm long on Tesla. Which was up 23% yesterday. I bought back in after a long hiatus in April and May and I'm up 90%. Almost doubled my money in six months.
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Sure, I'd expect a spike in the months preceding the tax break cancellation.... and a relative drop the month after. But how did October compare to the previous October? Though, even that by itself is not necessarily "diagnostic." What will be more telling is the next 12 months compared to the previous 12 months.

My prediction is that it will still be down SIGNIFICANTLY. The reality is that a LOT of people would have NEVER bought one had it not been for the tax credit. The fact that a big tax CREDIT (not expense / deduction) is needed to sell a product speaks VOLUMES on the inherent LACK of viability or value of the product. If the product needs a huge incentive to purchasers, well..... once that incentive is gone... so too will be the purchasers. We will see!
 
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Racer88 said:
Sure, I'd expect a spike in the months preceding the tax break cancellation.... and a relative drop the month after. But how did October compare to the previous October? Though, even that by itself is not necessarily "diagnostic." What will be more telling is the next 12 months compared to the previous 12 months.

My prediction is that it will still be down SIGNIFICANTLY. The reality is that a LOT of people would have NEVER bought one had it not been for the tax credit. The fact that a big tax CREDIT (not expense) is needed to sell a product speaks VOLUMES on the inherent LACK of viability or value of the product. If the product needs a huge incentive to purchasers, well..... once that incentive is gone... so too will be the purchasers. We will see!
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As candidate Trump explained to candidate Clinton.... "Yes. I take advantage of all the tax laws I can. Just like your wealthy friends who support your campaign. They do the same."

Why would anyone who can get a tax credit not take it?

Musk said he didn't care if there was a tax credit or not. I don't buy the argument that the only reason anybody buys an EV is to get a tax write off. I know a handful of EV owners and none of them bought the car because of the tax credit. They simply took advantage of it. Who wouldn't?

I agree that the taxpayer shouldn't be subsidizing car purchases of any kind. BTW: As Mitt Romney famously pointed out, about 46% of US citizens don't pay any federal tax. He was unpopularly correct.
 
Didn't suggest it's the only reason. But a credit is a huge incentive. Without the big incentive, I'm sure many would consider it in a different light. I contend that fewer people would buy it. A $7500 tax CREDIT is like "free money" (at the expense of the rest of the tax payers, of course). If I buy a $60k EV, I get it for $52,500 with the tax credit. On the other hand, if I buy a $60k ICE car, it costs me $60k. That's a BIG consideration. When the "free" $7500 is gone, the ICE car may be more attractive.
 
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Bobster said:
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I also know some people who smoke too much dope. :) I've known hippies who were convinced we should commune with nature, live in lean-to's or tents and make furniture out of fallen twigs.

There was a time when people pined for the return of the Stanley Steamer. So their car could burn coal or wood. Mainly because these were the energy sources they were comfortable with. Burning shit is ending. Next gen nuclear is going to be come the primary energy source and nearly all vehicles will be electric. The last generation of gas huffers will die in the next 10-20 years and ICE will become a chapter in history.

There were luddites in the mid-late 40's who said jet engines burned too much fuel and would be impractical for military or civilian use. So what if they are 4x faster but can only fly for 20 minutes. Sound familiar?
 
Spielberg got it wrong on the flying cars...so far.
It would be cool if he got the fusion generator right and a car could run on banana peels, coffee grounds, and Miller Light, even it if is still earth bound. 🤨

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Bongo Lewi said:
Next gen nuclear is going to be come the primary energy source and nearly all vehicles will be electric.
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Next gen... hell... CURRENT gen nuclear isn't even happening here. There is a (undeserved and emotional) stigma attached to nuclear here in the USA. We're not building nuke power plants. So the FIRST hurdle is to even get the IDEA approved. Good luck. So far, NO good. Then... IF we could get them approved, it will take DECADES and DECADES to get enough of them built to support the infrastructure that would be needed to power EVs.

Of course none of that addresses the primary objection to EVs... which is charging time and range. Yeah, yeah, yeah... "It's going to get better." Sure. Call me when that happens. Until then most of us will continue to be able to fuel up our ICE cars at ANY exit on ANY highway and do it in literally 3 minutes and be back on our way for another 400 - 500 miles. THREE MINUTES. No mapping out where we can fill up. ANY exit! No waiting in line for a pump.

Our objection to EVs is purely on a pragmatic basis. With EVs we have to CHANGE how we travel. The logistics and time tables change DRAMATICALLY for a road trip. We are a nation who likes to road trip on a whim. EVs require a whole other level of planning and timing. No thanks.
 
From what I'm reading, its AI data centers being built at the rate of 40-50 per month that is going to put a strain on the grid. Each adds 100MW of load to the grid.
Over 1500 have been announced but not started yet.
They are building these in about 18 months each.

This is a much larger concern than the additional demand from EV's.

My electric provider has begun charging extra for power consumed during "peak load times". The real question is are they going to ration power to consumers to keep the data centers online?
 
From the interwebs...

Is there any talk of power companies rationing power to consumers to keep the data centers online if demand excceeds supply?

Yes—while utilities are not officially “rationing” power to consumers, there is growing concern that data center demand could force grid operators to prioritize industrial loads over residential ones during peak strain, especially in high-growth regions like Virginia, Georgia, and Texas.


⚠️ What’s Happening Now​

  • Utilities are overwhelmed: A Reuters survey found that nearly half of major U.S. utilities have received data center power requests that exceed their total peak capacity.
  • Retail power prices are rising: U.S. residential electricity costs have jumped 13% since 2022, partly due to capacity charges and transmission upgrades driven by data center growth.
  • No formal rationing yet, but:
    • Brownouts and rolling outages are increasingly likely during heat waves or winter storms.
    • Grid operators may prioritize uptime for critical infrastructure—including data centers—over discretionary residential loads.
 
no4mk1t said:
From what I'm reading, its AI data centers being built at the rate of 40-50 per month that is going to put a strain on the grid. Each adds 100MW of load to the grid.
Over 1500 have been announced but not started yet.
They are building these in about 18 months each.

This is a much larger concern than the additional demand from EV's.

My electric provider has begun charging extra for power consumed during "peak load times". The real question is are they going to ration power to consumers to keep the data centers online?
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This is exactly what's going to accelerate new power generation and a big chunk of that is going to be new nukes. It wont take 10-15 years to build the plant and light it up - like it used to. The huge BWR design plants are never going to return. They did deliver economy of scale, but they are very costly and time consuming to construct. New plants will be much smaller and greater in numbers.

Being independent of the grid for your home... if you can, you should. Right now, I'm at 40% of my total load being solar. I just added a bigger battery but havent bought the additional panels I need to keep it charged. I'll do that in the spring. With that complete I'll be somewhere around 70-80% solar. That's typical load. If the situation were that no commercial power was available, I would have no worries. I can run the essentials all day all night off the batteries I have now but would have to put forth some effort to manage it all.

I'm not totally independent from the grid. When I'm doing something on the system I just flip the switch and use grid power. So if something on my side gets fried or damaged or fails, I have power. If the weather is nasty for days on end, I let the grid keep the batteries topped off. It's cheaper than running the generator.

Regarding AI and datacenters... the AI bubble is going to burst. Get ready. Power is indeed the constraint and that's a big one that cant be solved overnight. The other is infrastructure cost. The chips used in these datacenter are becoming totally obsolete in less than three years. The cost of replacing them is huge and the capacity to produce them already can't meet demand. When you combine those two constraints with the fact that the big AI players have not yet figured out how to monetize the services that they currently provide. Or what is promised for the future. All this new AI tech is cool but it's a fucking money pit. This is the very definition of a bubble and Round 1 and 2 investors are about to get fucked. Just like when the dot com bubble burst. My advice is don't speculate on AI right now. It's the new Dutch tulip mania.

There will be startups that become the new Google, Microsoft, Meta, X, Apple, or Amazon and a lot of people will get very rich off that. But it's a crap shoot right now who that's going to be. If history is any guide, it will be companies none of us have ever heard of who become the new titans. The big players I mentioned will still be around but become a shadow of what they once were. That's going to happen sooner than many think. Before we all take our dirt nap. Wet finger in the air.. I say ten years.
 
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Bobster said:
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Weight.
I see this a lot and decided to compare the curb weights of the base model Tesla (Model 3) and the Model Y against other similar ICE vehicles that no one says anything about their weight and see where the chips fall.

Model 3
4048 lbs. w/ LR battery

Model Y
4416 lbs. w/ LR battery

Chevrolet Caprice
4061 lbs.

Ford Crown Victoria
4057 lbs.

Ford 150
4021 lbs. 2WD
5540 lbs. Crew Cab 4X4

Chevrolet Silverado 1500
4400 lbs. 2WD

Chevrolet Silverado 3500
6947 lbs.

So, one could argue that the Caprice and the Crown Vic are no longer produced. True, but there are still a bunch of them still on the road. In addition, there are more pick-up trucks on the road than in years past, and there are bigger and heavier than ever.
So, this talking point is void.

Price
The Tesla Model 3 does cost more than a Camry due to all the hi-tech stuff Tesla loads them up with. If Tesla sold a Model 3 without the auto pilot, cameras, radar, touchscreen, voice controls, smart climate controls, etc. and equipped it with Camry level tech, it would cost about the same as a Camry.

As it has been written and talked about many times, a brand new car is not a sensible financial decision. It is much wiser to buy a used car.
If you look at 1 year and 2 year old Model 3's, they sell for the same price as a similar used Camry. So, the sensible buyer doesn't take the depreciation hit that comes with a new car purchase, he buys used.

Road Damage
As seen above, a Model 3 doesn't weigh any more than other common vehicles of similar size on the roads, and less than a pick-up truck which has replaced the full-size car with a lot of buyers, so why would they cause more damage?

Refueling time
This issue has two answers.
If you are talking daily driver situation where you are commuting back and forth to work and running daily errands where the distance traveled is within the range of the EV, then your refueling time is how long it takes you to plug in the car when you get home. Then you go in the house and do something else. Next morning, the battery is charged and ready to go.

A road trip is something else.
So yes, the gas burner can refuel in less total time, but when you're on a trip and have traveled long enough to burn a tank full of gas, do you really fill the tank and take off again like an Indy pit stop? Or do you stretch your legs, use the rest room, and maybe get something to eat?
Maybe when I was younger and in a hurry to get to my destination, but now, after spending 4 hours driving, I want a break that lasts longer than 5 minutes before getting back on the road, gas car or not.

Range
A Model 3 LR is rated at 466 miles. Since you don't operate an EV from 100% to 0%, let's call it 300 miles actual. That's going to be about 4 hours worth of highway driving. Do you spend more than that at a time in what you drive now?

Cost to manufacture
The car itself costs the same to build whether ICE or EV. The amount of metal, glass, and plastic is about the same.
There's no getting around the battery issue though. This will change as newer battery chemistries replace the rare earth elements. Probably still several years away though.

Operating Expenses
Charging vs. gas. If all you use are rapid chargers, this cost is about the same. Charging at home is where the savings come in.

Tesla Superchargers around here run from 38-50 cents per kWh depending on time of day and location.

Charging at home for me would be 16 cents per kWh if I owned an EV. So, charging our example Model 3 LR from 20% to 80% would cost $8.00.
How much do you spend every time you fill up?

Plus we have a local grocery store and a pub that offers free charging. A couple of the local hotels also for guests. Ever get free gas anywhere?

Wear items on an EV are tires, brakes, wiper blades, and windshield washer solution. Brakes last much longer due to regenerative braking. Tires will last the same if you drive the car the same. New EV owners quickly become addicted to the torque and develop a heavy right foot however, which wears tires faster.

Now, count up how much you spend on servicing an ICE car. All the oil changes, filter changes, belt and hose changes.
As the car ages, you will have repairs. Battery replacement, water pump, fuel pump, alternator, starter, sensors etc.

Battery degradation / warranty
Tesla warranties the Model 3 LR battery and drive train for 8 years / 120K miles. If battery capacity is below 70% within that time frame, the battery is replaced under warranty.

Out of warranty.
If your ICE engine or transmission needs replacement, do you go to the dealer and buy a new one? Of course not, that would be too expensive. You either buy an engine from the junk yard, buy a rebuilt engine, or have yours rebuilt and put it back in.

Same with EV batteries. First, current batteries are lasting much longer than expected. It is quite common to see Teslas with 200K on them and still going strong.
But when degradation brings capacity down to where replacement is needed. You would get a used battery, or have your pack evaluated and replace the underperforming individual cells. There are companies that specialize in this.

So, is all this going to talk anyone either into or out of buying an EV? Probably not. In the end, peeps are going to buy what they like and avoid what they dislike.

For me, as I've mentioned several times, I have no intentions of buying an EV at this time. The technology and infrastructure in the US needs to mature some more.
And if the time comes to where I decide to pull the trigger on an EV, I think it will be a classic conversion rather than a new or used 21st Century offering.

But if you've stuck around to the end of this longer than I thought it was going to be dissertation on EV myth busting, God Bless ya. 😋
 
no4mk1t said:
but when you're on a trip and have traveled long enough to burn a tank full of gas, do you really fill the tank and take off again like an Indy pit stop? Or do you stretch your legs, use the rest room, and maybe get something to eat?
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Gas and go. I'm not on vacation to hang out at a gas station. This is the silliest argument. Seriously.. Who hangs out or eats at a gas station?
 
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Racer88 said:
Gas and go. I'm not on vacation to hang out at a gas station. This is the silliest argument. Seriously.. Who hangs out or eats at a gas station?
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No one.
But most Tesla Superchargers are not located at gas stations. Often, they are 100 yds. from a restaurant, hotel or coffee shop. The one closest to me is close to a KFC and Arby's. The next closest one is next to a Fuddrucker's and a Bar and Grill. The one near the wife's work is in the parking lot between a Chick-Filet and a steakhouse with a Starbucks 100 yds. away.

But most EV owners will charge at home overnight and typically don't stop to charge unless they are on a trip.
 
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no4mk1t said:
But most Tesla Superchargers are not located at gas stations. Often, they are 100 yds. from a restaurant, hotel or coffee shop.
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I usually see them at "plazas." But they are basically fancy gas stations. Sure, they may have "restaurants" and a mini-store. But I'm not hanging out there or eating there.

no4mk1t said:
The one closest to me is close to a KFC and Arby's. The next closest one is next to a Fuddrucker's and a Bar and Grill. The one near the wife's work is in the parking lot between a Chick-Filet and a steakhouse with a Starbucks 100 yds. away.
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Yeah... again... call me a snob. But that's not my scene... waiting in line for a charger... and then waiting for the charge while one of us scampers off to a fast food joint to grab something. No thanks. My worst nightmare for a road trip. Seriously. I'm just not going to do that. All disadvantages and zero advantages.

On road trips, I don't hang around roadside stops. If we're going to eat, we're going to a sit-down real restaurant 98% of the time. I do not want to plan ANYTHING I do around charging... because I don't have to plan ANYTHING around gas stops. That's the difference. With EVs, you have to PLAN and DELAY. With ICE, I don't have to even think about it. One thing (eating, taking a leak, etc) has NOTHING to do with fueling the car. They are completely separate issues, neither of which I have to plan or coordinate.

Until there's chargers at EVERY exit with ZERO waiting AND can be done in THREE minutes... I'm simply not interested. Because that's how I do it now. I'm not willing to compromise that, especially when there is nothing to be gained by driving an EV. Right now, I can go on a road trip with ZERO planning or coordination. Until that can be done with an EV... it's of no use to me whatsoever. Of course, your mileage may vary. Some folks don't mind or even like that shit. Different strokes!
 
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